Specialists predict that global economy will slow

The global economy will slow in the coming months as China and the United States reduce its rate of expansion and governments around the world are trying to sort out their finances, polls showed on Wednesday, Reuters More than 600 economists.
However, it is expected that several Asian economies such as India and South Korea have better performance than expected this year than was thought a few months ago, which highlights the disparity of global economic recovery from the financial crisis and deep recession.

Reuters polls produced around the world in recent days show cuts to projected U.S. growth in coming quarters and expect the Fed will not raise interest rates until next year.

But at a general level, economists are still optimistic about the global outlook. The estimate for global growth was revised upward to 4.2 percent this year and 4.0 percent for 2011, slightly better than the estimate in a survey made three months ago.

Analysts also agree that the quarter just ended was a stronger expansion than expected, so the slowdown in the second half of the year could have a painful contrast, even when things pick up again in 2011.
"Globally, things are slowing but (...) the slowdown comes from what appears to be stronger levels of growth during the second quarter than many expected," said Dominic Wilson, director of macroeconomic research at Goldman Sachs in New York.

"The more complex issue is how far to trust a higher than expected growth outside the United States," he said.

The result is made known at a time when U.S. companies begin their season with solid earnings reports reports.

The probability of seeing a slowdown in growth coupled with benign inflation levels, implying that major central banks that interest rates remain at record lows, as the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will keep them free changes until next year.

However, many central banks and have raised, such as South Korea, Canada, Sweden and New Zealand, and is likely to tighten policy again this year, perhaps several times in some cases.
In China, the third largest world economy, growth is expected to cool gradually as the Government withdraws its economic stimulus package implemented during the crisis. Despite this, its economy would see a 10 percent expansion this year and 9.0 percent in 2011.

However, there have been clear signs of a slowdown in global growth, especially in the last round of indices for the purchasing managers in the private sector, both for manufacturing to the service sector.
High unemployment remains one of the greatest risks to the recovery around the developed world, putting pressure on family budgets, weakened by the financial crisis and now face higher taxes in several countries.

According to the survey, the U.S. unemployment rate averaged 9 percent or more in every quarter except one, the horizon of the forecasts. Is expected to fall by 8.7 percent in the last three months of next year.

Unemployment is expected to remain around 10 percent in the euro area as well, where many governments have adopted austerity measures put under pressure to the labor market if the private sector is not strong enough.