viernes, 30 de octubre de 2009

The EU does not clarify its spending on climate change

The EU prefers to keep his letters to Copenhagen and refuses to put figures on how much help finance the fight against climate change or how to apportion the costs among its members. After intensive talks at the summit of heads of State and Government of the Twenty-seven of Sweden, which holds the EU presidency this semester and is a strong advocate of cutting emissions, had to close the discussion without any progress.

The Europeans are committed to helping developing countries, but most want to have more available by the third world and considered a failure to disclose the Community's position in negotiations in the UN summit in Denmark in December. The leaders are resisting any agreement on the figures, which do not appear until they know where the other partners.

"I want to Copenhagen a success. The EU must make clear their views. But it is also crucial to clarify what the U.S. and China are willing to contribute," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "For tactical reasons, some of my colleagues think we should keep the wallet in your pocket for now ... I do not agree," complained the Danish premier, Lars Lokke Rasmussen.
Developing Countries

The European Commission believes that developing countries will need up to 100,000 million annually at the end of the next decade to match the green economy.

The Twenty-seven have no problems with this amount, but the Commission estimate that they will need public support of between 22,000 and 50,000 million. The EU could pay between 2,000 and 15,000 million. United Kingdom, for example, argues that the European sum reaches at least the 10,000 million. However, the Union has not even decided how to apportion the costs among its partners, especially between West and East Europe. The poorest want the relief to others are, in principle, voluntary.

In addition, Poland and eight other former communist countries argue that the burden-sharing is done based on the wealth of the member states, while England and Germany also want to consider emission levels. The Commission insisted that the EU should not recoil before Copenhagen. "Of course there are costs as well as many benefits," he repeated President Barroso.

OIL-market slows down about 80 DLRS after sharp rise

Oil prices swung below $ 80 a barrel Friday after a jump of 3 percent in the previous session, as the idea that oil prices may have outpaced the market reality attenuated the rebound.

The strong oil prices rose on Thursday, while shares of Wall Street scored its best daily percentage gain in three months.

Investors viewed the data showed the U.S. economy returned to growth in the third quarter and improved outlook for profits and power demand.

The world's largest economy grew at an annualized 3.5 percent in July September period, beating expectations of a rise of 3.3 percent and ending a steep decline.

U.S. crude for December delivery fell 31 cents to $ 79.51 a barrel by 1015 GMT, after trading above the key $ 80 level in early trading day. Brent crude was down 40 cents to $ 77.60.

The sharp increase on Thursday capped the increases in October, putting the oil on track for a gain of 13 percent this month after a positive earnings season, which led many investors to bet on further promotion of oil prices.

"With the fervent tone of the oil market was on Thursday, the word 'f'-basis-still seems far from the minds" of the market, the firm said JBC Energy analyst David Wech.

An evaluation colder the fundamentals of supply and demand is likely to unleash a price correction, he said.

"The oil still looks overvalued and an increase in GDP after three quarters of reductions does not mean that the United States nor the rest of the world and its problems have been overcome," he said.

Traders were on the lookout for new data due on Friday in the U.S., as consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan and the manufacturing index of the Institute of Supply Management USA (ISM in English)

Government estimates that Obama's economic stimulus created 600,000 job posts

The government of President Barack Obama estimates that his economic stimulus program has created about 650,000 jobs between March and September, said today the newspaper The Wall Street Journal.

Congress passed and enacted in February Obama a program of 787,000 million, which is largely not yet been disbursed, to counteract the economic downturn began in December 2007.

The jobs data will be included in the information that thousands of state and local governments, private companies, universities and community groups presented in early October showing how to use the funds received.

The paper said that these reports will be available to the public this afternoon on a website (recovery.gov).

In accordance with the requirements imposed by Congress when it passed the law, the reports cover only 150,000 million USD 339,000 million distributed to 30 September.

"As the documents are less than half of the incentive funds spent through the end of September, the White House considers the data as evidence that the Stimulus Act of 2009 will meet their goals to create or preserve at least a million jobs ", the newspaper said.

Yesterday the Commerce Department reported that in the third quarter of this year the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.5 percent. This was the first increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in a year, but there's more than 15 million workers without jobs.

miércoles, 28 de octubre de 2009

Leading Economic Indicators euro rises 1.2 percent in September

The leading economic index for the euro zone Study Group Conference Board (LEI, for its acronym in English) rose 1.2 percent to 100.6 points in September, suggesting a continued recovery in the block single currency.

The rally came after increases of 1.8 percent in August and 1.7 percent in July, the group said in a statement Wednesday, which said seven of the eight components of the index contributed positively in the month.

"(Is) strong earnings in the last six months in the LEI in the euro zone, Germany and France point to a continuing process of recovery," he said in a statement Jean-Claude Manini, European economist at the Conference Board.

"However, current economic conditions remain weak and the continuing downward trend in employment in the euro area, combined with the purpose of incentive measures, represent the risk of an extended period of weak growth after the recovery of short term, "he said.

Unemployment in the euro zone of 16 countries grew at more than a decade from 9.6 percent in August, which affected the prospects for a solid rebound from the worst recession since World War II.

Economists expect the euro zone economy has begun to grow in the third quarter of this year.

Governments have pumped billions of euros into the economy to kick, but must end their tax breaks because their deficits have risen to levels considered dangerous.

Finance ministers of the EU agreed this month it should start no later than 2001 to make deep cuts in their budget deficits.

The leading index, which anticipates economic development for up to six months in the future, features eight economic indicators that measure the activity in the euro area as a whole.

The components include the economic sentiment index from the European Commission, the rate of residential building permits secured from Eurostat, the index of new orders for capital goods and the Dow Jones EURO STOXX.

It also includes data from the European Central Bank money supply and interest rate differentials and the index of purchasing managers by Markit Economics and manufactures its index of future business expectations of the service sector in the euro area.

martes, 27 de octubre de 2009

OIL-market on break below 79 before inventory DLRS

Oil paused below $ 79 a barrel on Tuesday, was steady after three consecutive sessions of declines, as investors awaited further signs of stock market data and weekly crude inventories in the United States.

U.S. crude for December delivery fell 6 cents to $ 78.62 a barrel by 0931 GMT, after losing $ 1.82 to $ 78.68 Monday. Brent crude fell 2 cents to $ 77.24.

Operators are very attentive to the dollar on Tuesday, and also the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API, by its initials in English) that comes out later in the day, for signs on fuel demand in the world's largest consumer energy.

"At this time (the oil market) is more dependent on the direction of the dollar than anything they have to say the Department of Energy (U.S.), OPEC, China and even Goldman Sachs, analysts said Schork Group in his daily publication.

The dollar fell against the euro on Tuesday after a surge Monday on speculation the Federal Reserve would suggest an adjustment of monetary policy later.

Emphasizing the increased nervousness about stocks, commodities and currencies linked to high economic growth, the volatility of the futures market in Chicago, known as the VIX, rose 9.16 per cent stronger on Monday.

Stock markets in Europe bucked the trend with a marginal advance of 0.04 percent.

Energy stocks took the lead after the third quarter results from oil major BP beat forecasts, after an aggressive cost-cutting program.

While oil prices have risen nearly 77 percent this year, still trades at about half maximum of more than $ 147 a barrel seen in July 2008.

Analysts said investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of U.S. consumption figures in October and housing price data for August that will be available later in the day.

PRECIOUS-Gold recovers from three weeks minimum

Gold prices rose on Tuesday after falling in Europe at least three weeks, and growing the metal's appeal to investors as the dollar resumed its decline against a broad basket of currencies.

But physical demand was still weak due to high prices and the technical picture was less favorable than before, the precious metal could be at risk of further correction, analysts said.

Spot gold traded at $ 1040.05 an ounce by 1034 GMT, against $ 1037.10 on Monday afternoon in New York.

Gold futures in the U.S. for December delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange eased $ 2.10 to $ 1040.70 an ounce.

"It seems that there is any further consolidation under way," said a trader at Deutsche Bank, Michael Blumenroth.

"Long term, I think we could still see gold higher, but for now it seems a little more vulnerable, especially now that we have the euro going in the direction of $ 1.4850," he added.

A resistor in $ 1020 or $ 1030 in gold prices "should be sustainable and should rise again, but everything depends on the euro / dollar," he said.

The dollar fell against the euro on Tuesday, giving back part of previous day's gains, as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasuries retreated from highs two months.

Yields on government bonds rose on Monday on speculation that the Fed could signal an adjustment of monetary policy.

That benefited the dollar, pushing gold, which fell to their lowest levels since early October.

In the physical market for gold, a fall in prices has sparked some buying activity opportunity in India, a major consumer of the precious metal, although the rupee's weakness weighed on prices.

Purchases of jewelry have been weak this year as high prices diminish the interest of investors.

Enttre other precious metals, spot silver was trading at $ 17.07 an ounce against $ 17.05, platinum at $ 1326.50 an ounce versus $ 1330.50, and palladium at $ 328 against 329, $ 50.

miércoles, 21 de octubre de 2009

The Indian economy will grow 6.5% in the fiscal year, according to the Government

The Indian economy will grow 6.5 percent in the current fiscal year ending March 2010 due to declining agricultural sector and the slowdown of the service, as widely expected today by the Government.

"It is unlikely that growth is less than 6.25 percent, but could reach 6.75 per cent," said the Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, in a report.

Indian GDP rose 6.7 percent in the period 2008-2009, which ended last March, a fact already reflected the impact of global crisis in India after three consecutive years of growth above 9 percent.

Projections of the Economic, agriculture, economic activity that depend on two thirds of the population, will decline 2 percent in the current fiscal period.

The agricultural sector, which contributes 18 per cent to GDP of the state, had experienced an increase of 1.6% in FY 2008-2009 and 4.9 in the former.

Indian GDP growth will be driven by industry (including construction), for which the Government expects an increase of 8.2%, implying a significant increase to the rise of 3.9 from last fiscal year.

The service sector, which involves more than 55% of GDP, also will accelerate at a rate of 8.2% through March 2010, down from 9.7% the previous year.

"The Indian economy has weathered well the economic crisis and India remains the second fastest growing economy in the world," said council president, C. Rangarajan, after delivering his report to Singh, the news agency IANS.

The Council argued that the rainfall deficit of 22.7% during the last monsoon in the Southwest dogged farming, while falling international demand and rising household savings by the international crisis had an impact negative exports.

Emphasized the control of food price inflation (from 33% in the first half of this year) as one of the areas of political action in the short term, to set at 6% inflation forecast at year end (which accumulated 5.8% in the first half).

Also identified as priorities for the medium term improvement in agricultural productivity and the development of nuclear power and natural gas to combat the country's energy deficit.

U.S. mortgage applications fall back, rates go up

The U.S. mortgage applications fell for the second straight week, hurt by a slump in demand for home refinancing loans, while interest rates rose, according to an industry group.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA, for its acronym in English) said Wednesday that the 30-year mortgages with fixed-rate loan more used, stood at over 5 percent, a level seen as psychological.

The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes purchase and refinance loans, for the week ended Oct. 16 fell 13.7 percent to 641.0, its lowest level since the week ended 11 September.

The fall does not come from either a beaten U.S. housing market, the prime mover of the worst U.S. recession since the 1930s. While the industry has found some balance after a crisis three years, is still very vulnerable to setbacks.

France says strong euro is a handicap, but has benefits

The strength of the euro against the dollar is a disadvantage, but also has certain benefits, a spokesman said Wednesday the French government.

Luc Chatel said that President Nicolas Sarkozy Gallic propose "a new international monetary organization to better reflect today's world" the Group of 20 richest nations in the world in 2011, when France takes over the presidency of the G-20.

martes, 20 de octubre de 2009

An Obama advisor recommends companies to compete decentralized

The international relations expert Parag Khanna, an adviser to U.S. President Barack Obama has today recommended to the companies that opt for decentralization to gain positions in emerging markets.

Khanna, director of the Global Governance Initiative, World Economic Forum, took part today in San Sebastian in the first day of FARO International Congress 2009, organized by the Chamber of Guipuzcoa.

Before an audience full of entrepreneurs Gipuzkoa, Khanna has exposed the thesis contained in his book "The Second World", which defines the balance between the superpowers of the globalized world and emerging countries across the globe.

Has detailed the features of many international markets into which European companies can direct their eyes in its commitment to internationalization.

Khanna has argued for changing the mindset and leave the outline of companies that have headquarters overseas plants because, in his view, in the globalized world companies must prefer a completely decentralized scheme in which they have "20 nodes but no central headquarters.

Thus, companies must "understand the local market" and "train local managers" in order to compete effectively in emerging markets.

According to this expert paradigm described in his book currently there are three world superpowers, three cores that extend its influence throughout the world: USA, which owns 20% of global GDP, the European Union, with 23%, and China, that even has 11% of global GDP, is growing and has presence in all areas of the planet.

Over Japan, the Obama adviser has commented that traditionally has been considered a superpower, but currently "not anymore" because "it has been far behind," among other reasons because he suffers "a major demographic problem."

Following these three superpowers, Khanna puts a large group of countries comprising the "second world", which divided into five regions: Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Latin America, Middle East and Southeast Asia.

As noted, the industrialization of emerging countries may be perceived as a threat to SMEs of the superpowers, it should ask "how much they want to go global" to compete.

OIL-barrel falls below 80 DLRS, caution inventories

Oil prices fell Tuesday from a peak above 80 dollars per barrel recorded earlier on a weaker dollar, as a cautious review of supply and demand weakened the recovery.

The dollar fell to its lowest in 14 months against a basket of currencies on Tuesday. A weak dollar lowers the dollar-denominated commodities like oil, for those who derive their income in other currencies.

U.S. crude for November delivery touched $ 80.05 a barrel in Asian trade, the highest since Oct. 14 last year, but then fell back to $ 79.35 a barrel toward 1010 GMT.

London Brent crude fell 20 cents to $ 77.57 a barrel.

Oil prices have risen by almost $ 10 since early October fueled by optimism about the strength of the season of corporate earnings announcements as a sign of economic recovery, in addition to the renewed growth of oil demand.

"We see little support for the surge (oil prices), which collects eight days now, and we think at some point OPEC spare capacity of around 6 million barrels, along with the huge inventory offshore, unleash a correction phase, "said an analyst with Energy JCB, David Wech, in a research note.

The secretary general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Abdullah al-Badri said Tuesday he doubted that oil prices can continue around $ 80 a barrel, due to high inventories.

The U.S. inventory data disclosed on Tuesday that American Petroleum Institute could accelerate the losses in prices if crude inventories grow, according to some analysts.

A preliminary Reuters poll of analysts projected that the data reflect an accumulation of 2 million barrels in crude stocks last week.

lunes, 19 de octubre de 2009

China seeks to curb industrial overcapacity

China pledged on Monday to halt its industrial overcapacity to maintain a stable rapid growth of its economy and avoid losing that investment. But the success of the initiative is not at all sure as local authorities, which are judged by their performance in promoting growth and employment, usually ignore orders from Beijing.
"In the short term, inspection and supervision will be very hard," said Ken Peng, economist at Citigroup in Beijing.
"The authorities are concerned about overinvestment. But it is not unanimous. The implementation depends on local authorities and will not be easy," he said.
The Government hopes to halt the expansion of six sectors, by prohibiting the approval of new investment and leaving them without financing.
The sectors considered are steel production, cement, chemical derivatives of carbon, polysilicon, flat glass and wind energy equipment, according to a statement released by 10 ministries headed by the National Development and Reform.
China ordered banks not to finance projects in these sectors that do not meet the guidelines established by the Government, the ministries said.
Nor will investors meet unauthorized funds for expansion through bonds, short-term notes, medium-term notes, convertible bonds, public offerings and secondary equity sales.

The communique states that local governments must pay attention to signs of overcapacity in the fields of aluminum production, shipbuilding and processing of soybeans, but said that these industries would not be subjected to the same restrictions.

"Many sectors are still reporting serious problems of overcapacity and redundant construction, and some problems are even worse," the ministries.
Besides generating a drop in prices and profits, overcapacity incentive for manufacturers to sell their excess production abroad. As a result, increase trade tensions with U.S. steel and tires and Europe, in shoes.
The statement, which adds to a policy set last month by the State Council-designated name given to China's cabinet, said that overcapacity control is a priority in the restructuring of the economy.
"The Chinese economy is currently at a critical stage of stabilization and recovery," the statement said.

LOCAL OPPOSITION

The guidelines reflect the concern that much of the fiscal stimulus package of 4 billion yuan (585,000 million) and the resurgence of bank credit which accompanied it would stop going to the industrial sector.The Government intended that the money should go to infrastructure efforts, affordable housing, rural development, technology upgrades and strengthening the social safety net.But these drastic measures reflect the confidence that Beijing can now pay attention to its deep-rooted structural problems such as overcapacity and heavy dependence on investment, now that the economy has seen the worst of the global crisis.
Xiong Bilin, a senior commission official, told a press conference that China will have no difficulty in achieving the government target of growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 8 percent.

In recent years, the commission has repeatedly taken steps to control overcapacity in a number of sectors, including the steel, cement and metal foundries.But Xiong admitted the difficulties of the agency to meet local opposition.

China, the world's largest producer, has a capacity to 600 million tonnes of steel a year, but 58 million of that total has been installed without permission from Beijing, said."We are asking local governments to create a good environment for market development. We're not asking specifically to close this or that," he added.

The European banking industry could lose 85,000 jobs by crisis, says Bank Tables

The European banking industry could lose 85,000 jobs by crisis, says Bank Tables.
Madrid, Oct 19 (Thomson Financial) .- The European banking industry could lose 85,000 jobs as a result of the crisis, of which between 10 and 15 per cent will be in Spain, said today the president of the Association des cadres Banking (ACB), Antonio Torres.
Torres made the remarks during a press conference held by the Confederation of tables and Professional (CCP), which denounced the "malpractice of the UGT union to attract delegates from other smaller formations and attack and the unions with underrepresented.
In response to questions from journalists on how it may affect potential mergers in the banking sector to employment, the chairman of the Banking Association des cadres-integrated into the BAC-explained that such processes may involve the loss of 85,000 jobs in Europe.

About Spain indicated that although the banking sector is among the most "competitive", is also suffering from the crisis and therefore this will impact the loss of jobs. However, he stated that this process will take place on a non-traumatic, through early retirements and voluntary redundancies.

Torres also said that although the figures are not known so far, there have been "a very significant impairment of job losses in the banking sector. Moreover, the Banking Association des cadres today denounced the situations of privilege and domination "of the two major trade unions-in reference to the CCOO and UGT, which gives" a status that does nothing but arrogant devalue freedom association ".
As said Antonio Torres, UGT has created a "plot" against the CBA has led to the departure of some delegates and members of the same.
So complained that even "secure the cooperation of the chief administrator of the CPF to provide them with the database of delegates and members," and now this former employee is working for UGT.

Thompson said about that the CPF will act "overwhelming" and that the Board of Directors that the Association will hold the next 20 to 22 October in Barcelona, will be discussed concrete measures to be carried out. In addition, the Board will address other issues such as the banking crisis or the union structure, which provides minority to join with others to present a single candidate in the upcoming union elections to be held in late 2010 or early 2011.

The falling dollar, inflation factor for the Gulf oil monarchies

The falling dollar will fuel inflation in the oil rich Persian Gulf monarchies, though not forcibly take you to separate your currency greenback, analysts said.
With the continuing decline of the dollar, which is close to 1.50 per euro from a few days ago, exports from Europe and Asia to the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will become more expensive.
"The most direct consequence of the weak dollar will be a higher bill for imported products," said Paul Gamble, head of research Jadwa Saudi Investment Bank. "This will not be immediately through increased inflation because the ties between local and global economies are flexible enough to allow keeping a lid on consumer price index," said Gamble told AFP.
"However, a persistent fall in the dollar may eventually lead to more inflation, a phenomenon that is exacerbated by rising raw materials that serve as shelter value to a weakening dollar," he added.

Since March, the dollar lost 18% of its value against the euro, and analysts expect a move towards lower long term. In parallel, a barrel of oil rose 75% from its fall to $ 34 in early 2009.
Kuwait is the only GCC country which indexes your currency on the basis of a basket of currencies dominated by the dollar, which explains a setback not as strong of its currency, the dinar.
In contrast, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar and Oman have their currencies fully indexed to the dollar, which the devaluation is even greater.
The most visible impact of the dollar's decline is the rising prices of foodstuffs in the Gulf, said the analyst Amrith Mukkamala, the Kuwait Financial Center.
"A weak dollar will increase import prices, such as food products," said Mukkamala told AFP.
"Inflation is already rising in the GCC and the trend will be accentuated in December," said Mukammal, estimating that anyway will not be as strong as in 2008, when he reached double-digits in five of the six countries of Persian Gulf, with Bahrain as the only exception.

The average inflation in the GCC is set at 2.9% at end-2009, against 10.8% in 2008, but should climb strongly in 2010, supported by rising oil prices and the return of economic growth.

The high inflation of the last two years he returned to bring to the fore the debate about the indexing of local currency on the dollar. Until now, the GCC countries ruled out the system and four of them are preparing to launch a single currency will also be indexed from the dollar.

jueves, 15 de octubre de 2009

GM and Magna, near agreement on Opel

General Motors was close to signing an agreement to sell a 55 per cent in Canada's Magna Opel to continue as talks with unions on staff cuts.
Sources in Germany, where Opel has about half of its 50,000 employees, said the deal could be signed on Thursday or Friday.
The deal could end several weeks of negotiations between the companies and representatives of the workforce, but there are still details on funding, including the 4,500 million to be achieved by countries hosting Opel factories.The employees of the factory cars should get a share of 10 percent in the new company in exchange for concessions on costs, while GM will retain a 35 per cent.
GM decided last month to sell a controlling interest to Magna and its Russian partner Sberbank.

Countries with Opel factories have struggled to save jobs and prevent plant closures aid pledging billions of euros.Talks with unions were continuing in Spain, while the union representing workers at Vauxhall, the brand of the company in the UK that employs 5,500 people, reached an agreement with Magna this week.

In Belgium, the unions agreed to a savings of 20,200 million euros in the factory in Antwerp after Magna promised to keep the plant open. This production facility was one of the leading candidates for closure.The Polish Economy Ministry declined to comment on a report on local radio on the grant aid of 450 million euros.
"Poland intends to provide an amount that depends on the requests and needs of the new Opel in Gliwice," said a ministry spokesman.In Spain, Magna back on Wednesday offered a 72 percent production of the new Opel Corsa in 2013.
Until then, production was reduced to 70 percent for Germany, said the producer of Canadian car parts during a meeting with government representatives and union of Aragon in Zaragoza.
"The Constitution guarantees the supply capacity of the plant in Zaragoza, with two production lines of 478,000 vehicles. That's an improvement, but will continue to negotiate today and tomorrow," said Arturo Aliaga, industry manager of the Aragon government.
A representative of Workers' Commissions said: "It's a step forward, but we expect more."
The Opel plant in Figueruelas, near Zaragoza, employs 7,500 people and Magna intends to reduce staff in posts from 1300 to 1650.
Initial plans for the restructuring of Opel, which include the loss of 10,500 jobs in Europe, have found strong opposition from European governments.
Magna and Sberbank have promised to inject 500 million euros in the car manufacturer, and intends to use that investment to enter the Russian market.
The European Commission noted the situation closely to ensure that state aid is not used in political matters.

miércoles, 14 de octubre de 2009

Euro touches a maximum of 14 months versus dollar after EU production data

The euro hit a 14-month high against the dollar on Wednesday, boosted by data showing an acceleration in industrial production in the euro zone, while the dollar remained under selling pressure.
Industrial production in the euro zone rose in August at the monthly comparison and July was revised higher. Industrial production rose 0.9 percent in the month, which fell 15.4 percent year level.

The euro rose to a maximum of $ 1.4913 on trading platform EBS, its highest elevation since August 2008.
The dollar index fell to 75.452, also its lowest level since August last year.

European shares hit more than 12 months, oil rise

European shares rose on Wednesday to a maximum of 12 months by a weaker dollar drove oil prices and metals, and to results of the technology that Intel and ASML reassured investors.

At 0928 GMT the FTSEurofirst 300 of top values rose 1.87 percent to 1014.03 points, after reaching a maximum of 12 months of 1014.36 points in the session.

The dollar hit a 14-month low boosting prices for oil and metals.

Energy stocks gained ground by the recent rise in oil prices above $ 75 a barrel.

Shares of oil company Total, ENI, BP and Royal Dutch Shell gained between 2 and 2.6 percent.

martes, 13 de octubre de 2009

OPEC foresees more global oil demand in 2009 and 2010

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised up its forecast for oil demand in 2009 and 2010, following signs of "restoration" of the world economy, in its monthly report published on Tuesday in Vienna.
The decline in consumption was limited to -1.65% this year instead of 1.8% previously expected, and will rise to 0.8% in 2010, against 0.6% previously raised, the report of the OPEC.
In absolute terms, OPEC increased its forecast for 2009 and 2010 by around 0.2 million barrels per day (mbd).
The organization, source of 40% of world oil, is betting on a world recession of -1.2% this year and 2.7% growth in 2010, instead of 2.3% previously.
"The world economy appears to be entering a new phase, moving from a period of limiting the effects of the crisis to a period of economic recovery," said the cartel.
Despite a recovery in U.S. oil demand in 2010 will be driven primarily by emerging powers like China and India and regions like the Middle East and Latin America, OPEC said.
Last Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) had also revised upwards its projection of world oil consumption in 2009, which according to the agency will suffer a decline of 1.9% compared to 2008, instead of -2.2 % in its previous monthly report.

India tightens rules for foreign workers

The Indian government has ordered to leave the country to all foreign workers who hold a business visa to be interchanged for one job to return to India, told today diplomatic and business sources.
The tightening of the visa regime aims to encourage hiring of local staff and is also based on security reasons, according to diplomatic sources consulted by Efe.
"They want more control over who is working and where for security reasons and to promote the employment of Indian," explained the source, who requested anonymity.
In late September, the Indian government through diplomatic channels reported the entry into force on the 30th of this month of the new legislation, which prevents the stay in the country to foreigners who are running a project or work in possession of visas for business .

The authorities agreed to extend the deadline until Oct. 31 to provide the affected visa formalities to swap jobs in their countries of origin.
In an explanatory letter, the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry said that "employment visa applications for jobs for which there are a large number of available qualified Indians not be taken into consideration."This new measure will affect all countries but have a particular impact on China, a State which has thousands of employees in various projects in India, the newspaper "The Times of India".
Some 3,000 Chinese citizens have already applied for commutation of their visas, according to Interior Ministry data.
"We have many unskilled or semi-skilled in the country. However, if for a specific qualification or high so we will consider (the granting of visas to foreigners) but only until the project is assembled," abounded few days ago, Interior Minister P. Chidamber, quoted by The Times of India ".
The measure "disturbs us in the sense that we have to send our staff to Spain" to the proceedings, told Efe the head of Administration in Asia Spanish group of electrical Cobra, Mark Brasa.
The businessman explained that the entry into force of the legislation have been taken by surprise and for six of its employees.According Brasa, so far its workers came to India with a business visa temporarily and once confirmed that they would remain in the country, were converted to an employment visa.
For general manager in India of the Spanish infrastructure company Isolux-Corse, Mario Pastinante, there is nothing surprising about the new rules because, Efe said, "no country in which to work with a business visa."Companies will have to review and restructure their programs to meet visa requirements," said executive director of the PricewaterhouseCoopers audit, Kuldeep Kumar, economic quoted as saying "Financial Express".
The Spanish embassy does not interpret the new measure, which the Indian press will affect some 70,000 expatriates, as a barrier designed to complicate the entry of EU citizens.
"They are entitled to ask for the correct visa. I see this as an attack at the entrance of foreigners," he told EFE Spanish diplomatic source, who said that from now on will need to prove to the Indian legations why that is wants to hire a foreigner.
According to the embassy, employment visas were being granted for long periods, although the source could not say whether a document expiration time may be renewed at the Foreigners' Office in New Delhi and will be back again to Spain. On day 9, the Spanish embassy sent a circular to companies based in India alerting the rule change and advised them to go to the Foreigners Registration Office (FRRO) to learn of your situation.
According to the note, the FRRO has been instructed to meet foreigners who seek advice, a procedure that these days will be a bit more complicated in the office always collapsed on foreigners since India is in full season of festivals and buildings Officers closed their doors to celebrate the dates mentioned in the Hindu calendar.

lunes, 12 de octubre de 2009

BASIC METALS-Copper rallies to demand favorable outlook

Copper prices rose on Monday as the recent spate of upbeat economic data improved the outlook for demand, but optimism was limited by a further increase in inventories.
The price of copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange (LME, for its acronym in English) was trading at $ 6285.50 a tonne at 0942 GMT from $ 6230 closing Friday. "For aluminum and copper, should be a seasonal rebound in the fourth quarter," said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital. "But not as pronounced as in previous years. The first quarter of 2010 looks a bit better."
"Confidence is increased by the data, but confidence alone is not enough to push the market to new highs," he said. He said the fundamentals of the industry must be improved so that prices can grow even more. Last week, the market was boosted by some favorable data on the U.S. service sector and manufacturing in Germany.
But a further increase in copper stocks limited the favorable perception. Inventories in LME warehouses rose 775 tonnes to 347,375 tonnes, its highest level since mid-May.
Stocks have been rising since mid-July, reversing a trend of nearly constant falls early this year.
Trading was quiet at a time when industry experts gathered in London for the annual week of the LME, which is expected to address in depth the outlook for metal prices.
Trading volumes on the LME this year could reach the record seen in 2008 due to the high volatility of prices, said chief executive Martin Abbott LME.
Investors were also watching the preliminary data of trade in China in September, due on Wednesday to see if it holds the world's top consumer demand for base metals.
Aluminum is trading at $ 1932 from its previous price of $ 1909.
Zinc traded at $ 2070 from $ 2033.

Ostrom and Williamson Americans win Nobel Economics Prize 2009

Elinor Osrom Americans and Oliver E. Williamson are the winners of the 2009 Nobel Prize in Economics for his analysis of economic governance and on the limits of the companies, said Wednesday's Riksbank of Sweden.
Ostrom is the first woman to receive a Nobel Prize in Economics for his theories on the role of business in conflict resolution and analysis of how economic transactions are conducted not only through markets but within firms , associations and families.
Williamson has added to these the analysis regarding the role of enterprises as alternative governance structures and limits.
Ostrom, born in 1933 in Los Angeles, is Professor of Political Science at the University of Los Angeles and founder of the Center for the Study of Institutional Diversity at the University of Arizona.
Williamson, born in 1932 in Superior, United States, a doctorate in economics in 1963 at Carnegie Mellon University and carries on Berkeley.
Last year's winner was American Paul Krugman, creator of new theories that integrated international trade and economic geography, as well as prestigious writer and opposition to the policies of former U.S. President George W. Bush.
The economics award closes the round of announcements of the Nobel 2009, the most coveted of which, the Peace, went on Friday at the U.S. president, Barack Obama.
The Literature, announced Thursday, was for the Romanian-German writer Herta Müller, considered the voice of the dispossessed and Germanic minority representative in Romania.
With regard to the scientific field, on Monday last week was unveiled in medicine going to Americans Elizabeth H. Blackburn, Carol Greider and Jack W.

This was followed in Physics, the British-American Charles Kuen Kao and Sterling Americans Willard Boyle and George Elwood Smith.On Wednesday, the chemistry was awarded to Americans Venkatraman Ramakrishnan and Thomas A. Israeli Steitz and Ada E.

Nobel economics prize endowed with ten million kronor (980,000 euros or $ 1.4 million) and, like the rest, is delivered on December 10, the anniversary of the death of its founder, Alfred Nobel.

All the awards were handed out in Stockholm except for Peace, which takes place in Oslo ceremony.

viernes, 9 de octubre de 2009

British trade deficit is reduced to 6,200 million pounds in August

The UK trade deficit narrowed slightly in August to 6,200 million pounds (9.900 billion, 6.700 billion), against 6,400 million in July, today announced the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK.
Economists had expected a deficit of 6,350 million pounds, according to a compilation of estimates published by the bank Calyon.
The deficit with other countries in the European Union (EU) rose sharply to 3,200 million pounds, against 2,500 million in July, but reducing the deficit with other trading partners was more important: 3.000 billion pounds in August compared to 3,900 last month.
International trade in services, traditionally a surplus in the UK, showed a surplus of 3,900 million pounds, against 3,800 million in July.
Including these exchanges, the total trade deficit decreased to 2,300 million pounds, against 2,600 million in July.
According to some economists, this improvement in the deficit confirms the expectation that the British economy grows again in the third quarter just ended and whose data will be published.
Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight, said that "exporters are given an unlimited competitiveness of the pound (which depreciated against other major currencies since the start of the crisis) and the deceleration of the contraction in activity or the return of growth in several key markets. "
Conversely, the depreciation of the pound, which increased the relative price of imported goods weighed on imports, he said.

The anti-crisis measures raise the U.S. fiscal deficit to 9.9% of GDP

U.S. closed the fiscal 2009 (ended September 30) with a hole in the public accounts of $ 1.4 billion (945,000 million), equivalent to 9.9% of GDP. It is triple the record set in 2008. A heavy burden it puts more pressure on the dollar and that may complicate a Barack Obama health reform.
The 16.6% drop in revenues from the recession, 254,000 million injected into the financial sector, the 200,000 million in incentives to revive the economy and the 120,000 million in aid to explain unemployed, according to the Congressional Budget Office The strong degradation.
The deficit is, in terms of GDP, a level not seen since World War II. This could force the Federal Reserve (central bank) to raise interest rates more strongly to attract investors. Y eso podría lastrar la recuperación económica.
The deficit, which must still confirm the Treasury, is below the anticipated 1.6 trillion in August. Even so, it avoided giving fresh ammunition to members of Congress who oppose health reform, which could cost taxpayers about 900,000 million during the next decade.
The huge U.S. deficit that accumulates is a source of concern among the main countries that buy debt, like China. The White House responds by saying that once the recession passes, take measures to put it below 3%. And specific actions and promises in the Budget 2011.
What both on Wall Street is that if Obama wants to respond to all these promises and pay for his ambitious health reform, which will have no spending cuts (which shot up 17% last year) and raise taxes on incomes high to raise revenue.

The dollar's decline accelerates, causing alarm in the currency markets

This mutant is a crisis as the worst viruses. The problems of a small segment of the U.S. credit, subprime, resulted in the worst financial storm in recent decades, and in turn the financial crisis moved to end leather whipping the real economy, which is hardly out of the worst recession since the war. A dangerous new mutation is in sight: the dollar accelerates its plunge yesterday and touched 14 months lows against the euro. Threatens to cause turmoil in the already volatile currency markets to lose ground to other major currencies in the past half year. The snowball is growing: several Asian central banks yesterday announced interventions to build dams to contain and stop this fall, in a moment of weakness in the U.S. economy.No self-respecting financial crisis has not led to a severe foreign exchange crisis. This possibility is remote, but the devaluation of the dollar adds uncertainty to the painful world economy that has barely even bend the corner to recovery. Much is at stake: the collapse of the dollar makes the output of the U.S. crisis, which lowers their exports. And retruque complicates the rest of the economies, especially the most exporting.
The difficulty for export is the main reason behind the wave of interventions by central banks of South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Hong Kong, which yesterday bought dollars-or dollar-denominated assets to prevent further devaluation of the U.S. currency, very dangerous in countries making the foreign sector the engine of their economies. These movements, small-scale, are still recurrent in the currency markets in recent weeks, but go further: even Japan, the world's third largest economy and a leading member of the now almost defunct G-7, threatening a massive intervention to stop an escalation of the yen, in eight months highs against the dollar.
"The central bank interventions are not unusual in China and Brazil are doing every day, as oil exporters to compensate for movements of the market that suits them. The worry is if it begins to take larger it's hard to go against the market, "explained Paul Guijarro, International Financial Analyst (AFI).
Jose Luis Martinez, Citi added that such interventions "are cushioning the fall of the greenback. "But the pressure on the dollar is strong. It comes from the very weak U.S. economy, the U.S. monetary policy stimulus and a more speculative forces: investors are using cheaper to borrow dollars for something that previously required with other currencies, "he said.

In a day full of major economic policy decisions-the UK and the euro zone left interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and 1% respectively, the disarray caused by the dollar accounted prominence: gold hit a new high, and well above $ 1,000 an ounce, and crude oil climbed to $ 70 a barrel. Talk is cheap: the leaders of G-20 countries plus emerging rich-agreed last month in Pittsburgh working together to solve global imbalances, but virtually no mention of exchange rates, which appear as a major source of conflict.
U.S., the UK and to a lesser extent the euro area have enabled the machine to print money-purchase of public and private debt, which in practice is a hidden devaluation, the greater the more you give the machine. The emerging, which have fared better in the crisis, continue to accumulate reserves and serve markets for their currencies, in an uncoordinated way. And amid the swell, all is seemingly well: the U.S. has not abandoned the mantra of "strong dollar" but also complains about his downfall. Also the European Central Bank president, Jean-Claude Trichet, yesterday repeated the usual prescription: "We are campaigning to extend the use of the euro at the international level. Both the U.S. and Europe believe that a strong dollar is in the interest of the United UU. Yet today's dollar is anything but strong.

jueves, 8 de octubre de 2009

The French economy is closing its second quarter to rise

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of France has grown by 0.3% in the third quarter, according to the Bank of France, which today remained unchanged its earlier economic forecast in its monthly survey on the situation in industry and services. Confirmed these data, would be the second consecutive quarter of recovery, and that between April and June the French GDP rose 0.3% after three consecutive quarters of decline.
The Bank of France said in a statement that the business climate indicator in industry stood at 92 points in September, compared to the 89 August and the level 100 which marks the average since 1981 when it began conducting this study. In the case of services, this index rose two points over August to 84 integers. The central bank said industrial activity in September as a whole remained stable compared to the previous month. The utilization rate of production capacity increased slightly, but continued to "an even weaker."
In fact, the order books of companies also recovered, but still remained "below normal", while inventories of finished products remained close to the desired level. In the coming months, the prospects of the Bank of France is that the activity will continue "at the current level.
The French Government had revised upward mid-September economic forecasts for both this year, when estimated a decline in GDP of 2.25% (instead of a drop of 3% until then) to the next, in the it expects a recovery of 0.75% instead of 0.5%.

Soybean oil and advance with caution

The price of oilseed wins $ s3 and t is trading at $ 338. A barrel of U.S. crude traded type WTI above $ 70.
Prices for soybeans and oil are traded on Thursday, up in the international market, but remain subject to the climate of cautious ahead of quarterly new corporate balance sheets.
The tonne of oilseed $ 338 is offered with a rise of three dollars from its close of yesterday, according to Reuters news agency.
Oil is also traded on the rise, albeit more moderately. The American crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $ 70.23, 66 cents more than yesterday.

miércoles, 7 de octubre de 2009

In one week, gold gained more than U.S. $ 50 and manages historical prices

The metal price increased nearly $ 8 for its closure yesterday. The jaguar is marketed at $ 1047. Investors migrate to the weak dollar.
The metal price increased nearly $ 8 for its closure yesterday. The jaguar is marketed at $ 1047. Investors migrate to the weak dollar
View image galleries.
Gold hit a record Wednesday on the spot and future markets, supported by a weaker dollar attracted investors on a buying mood toward the precious metal, traders said.
The spot gold prices advanced at a record high of $ 1045.85 an ounce, while gold for December delivery on the COMEX futures market for U.S. came to $ 1046.80 an ounce.
The dollar fell 0.12 percent against a basket of major currencies.

Moderate hikes in the stock of Europe to the weak dollar

European markets extendienden gains the previous session with gains less than 0.5 percent. Investors remain cautious before the devaluation of U.S. currency
The FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 0.13 percent to 994.05 points.
Mining stocks extended gains on Tuesday, while gold climbed to new highs above $ 1,040 an ounce, and copper remained relatively firm. Anglo American, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata gained between 0.5 and 1.1 percent.
The European benchmark rose 2.2 percent Tuesday, its biggest daily percentage gain in nearly two months and a cumulative gain of more than 55 percent from its record low registered on March 9, driven by investors increasingly confident economic prospects.Some analysts advised caution, saying that much of the recent rise in the stock was due to rising metal prices, fed in turn by the weak dollar.
"Demand for commodities is not growing. Prices of raw materials are fooling us, because they are covered by the layer of the dollar. Scoop layer and raw materials will look weak," said Justin Urquhart Stewart, director at Seven Investment Management .
The insurance sector also rose, benefiting from rising stock markets worldwide. Aviva gained 3.60 percent, while AXA and Prudential jumped more than 1.2 percent.
Energy companies were among the more ground they lost, although the price of oil held above $ 71.Shares of Total, BP, Repsol YPF and Royal Dutch Shell fell between 0.5 and 1.4 percent.
Among the local markets of the region, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.1 percent, Germany's DAX 0.16 percent and the Paris CAC-40 climbed 0.23 percent.

BMW Group sales rose in September for the first time this year

The German auto group BMW sold more cars in September than the same month in 2008, so was able to increase sales for the first time this year.
BMW reported that in September around the world sold 122,354 units of BMW, Mini and Rolls-Royce, 0.7 percent more than the same month last year.The BMW brand delivery in September fell 1.2 percent to 97,545 units, while Mini support increased by 9.5 percent to 24,759 vehicles.
However, the BMW Group sales fell in the first nine months of the year by 15.7 percent to 939,554 vehicles.
The head of Sales and Marketing Group, Ian Robertson, predicted an increase of deliveries in each of the last three months of the year, provided there are no short-term setbacks.
In late October, BMW will expand its model range with the new X1 and 5 Gran Turismo series.
Robertson predicted a sales decline of between 10 and 15 percent for the whole year 2009 compared to 2008, when it sold 1.2 million vehicles.

martes, 6 de octubre de 2009

Apple makes the Chamber of Commerce for differences on climate

Apple on Monday became the latest company to leave the Chamber of Commerce of the United States because you disagree with climate change policy of the financial group.
"We would prefer that the camera opts for a more modern attitude in this decisive and to have a constructive role in dealing with the climate crisis," wrote Catherine Novelli, vice president of management at Apple, in a letter sent Monday to the financial group.
Novelli wrote that Apple gave up his membership of the group "with immediate effect."
Last month, three major energy companies, Exelon, PG & E and PNM Resources, said they left the chamber given the position taken on the climate issue. Other companies have criticized the House, which has called for public meetings held to challenge the scientific evidence say that man is responsible for climate change. These critics say that the position of the House does not reflect the broader vision of its members on the weather.

After Exelon announced his departure last month, the chamber said in a statement that is in favor of "overview of common sense on climate change but opposes a bill passed by the House of Representatives June by a narrow margin of votes.
Senate Democrats released their version of the bill last week that added different aspects to the legislation of the House, although the future of the law is not secure.

Australia's central bank raises rates, anticipates further tightening

Australia's central bank raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent and anticipate further monetary tightening, saying that now that the greatest danger to the economy is over, it is safe to remove the monetary stimulus.
The Australian dollar rose the most in 14 months as investors were quick to discount at least one more rate increase around Christmas, with a rise in official borrowing costs above the 4 percent within a year.
Asian markets also moved to discount expectations of further monetary tightening on the part of central banks.
The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (NGA) makes this organism is the first of the central banks of the Group of 20 countries in raising rates as it eases the global financial crisis. The initiative of the USA was a surprise to many analysts.
However, the markets had been full of speculation about a move of the entity, given the strength of recent economic data.
"The USA had become known that was coming to raise rates from their lows a little extraordinary, and now he has done," said Rory Robertson, interest rate strategist at Macquarie.

"It will be a gradual move from an emergency rate of 3.0 percent to 4 percent, still expanding," he added.It was the first increase of the USA since March 2008, but only removes a small part of the incentive of 425 basis points applied when the global credit crisis was at its worst.

Spain: Unions reject Lloyds restructuring plan that foresees 190 layoffs

The unions rejected "again and unanimously" the restructuring plan of the financial institution Lloyds Banking Group, which resulted from the merger completed earlier this year in Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) and Lloyds TSB, which includes the dismissal of 190 workers.
According UGT said in a statement today, the unions held another meeting yesterday with the address of the entity in which the company presented its bid that seeks to reach agreement with the employee representatives.
He added that previously, the agency gave "a small part of the basic documentation that was requested by the unions" and I pose in their pre-retirement program and downs through layoffs.
UGT explained that on the basis of surplus staff of 190 employees that the company raises, of which 46 must be reduced early retirement of people born in or before 1952, is added confirmation that these 46 people will leave the retail banking in its entirety.

He added that of the 144 remaining workers, the company says it could extend a hand early retirement, provided that the unions accept the early retirement call "industrial", which means that the charge on early retirement and unemployment benefits to supplement income bank fixed, dismissing the rest.Thus, explained that conditions are that the bank planned early retirement with 80 per cent of Pensionable Salary (SP) net, that is, minus income tax and social security contributions.
In addition to paying the Special Agreement to the Social Security retirement age.

However, he indicated that the direction of the entity is not identical issues "very important" as the early retirement age, retirement or the end, though is around 63 or 64 years.
As for layoffs, UGT says the company expects to take place through a Force Adjustment of Employment (ERE) by extending the 20 days per year of establishing this formula up to 40 days per year, of which only the top 20 would be tax exempt and the remaining 20 should be taxed.

Finally UGT said of such proposals, the unions reject the offers, but said they would file a unitary alternative to the company's offer in the near future.
He added that employee representatives nor accept any closure "unilateral" branches.
"We do not accept or dismissal and we are concerned not only the 190 employees that the bank intends to cut now, but also the viability of the new bank resulting from the merger to the address we accuse them of lack of commitment, in the absence of a specific project for the future

Germany will shrink by 4.2% in 2009 and grow by 2.7% in 2010

The German economy will contract by 4.2 percent in 2009 despite being back in second half and will grow 2.7 percent in the whole of 2010.These are the new forecasts of German insurer Allianz, which provides a "strong recovery of the situation in Germany in the fourth quarter and a good start in 2010.
Allianz predicts that gross domestic product (GDP) German grow 4 percent in the first quarter of next year, compared to same period in 2009, but may not maintain this rate of improvement throughout the year, said the economist the insurer's chief, Michael Heise, at a press conference.
He added that in 2010 will reduce the pulse circumstantial support programs worldwide and housing markets affected by the crisis are recovering slowly.
In countries with a high ratio of household debt, consumer demand will expand moderately and the overall demand for investment goods will be limited.For these reasons, Allianz provides that German exports will be the engine not cyclical as in previous recoveries.
Investment in Germany will recover after falling dramatically in the economic and financial crisis, while private consumption will worsen some of the burden of unemployment and the disappearance of the increased purchasing power for energy prices lower.
Allianz provides an increase in unemployment in 2009 and 2010 as a result of the recession, while ruling out a dramatic worsening labor market.
The number of unemployed in Germany is to end 2009 at 3.5 million and in 2010 between 3.8 and 3.9 million people.

lunes, 5 de octubre de 2009

New fall of the Spanish industrial production in August

Industrial production in Spain fell again in August by 13.1% year on calendar corrected figures, announced Monday the National Statistics Institute (INE).
The Spanish economy is mired in a recession since late 2008, and since October 2008, the Spanish industrial production has fallen every month more than 10% year with a record of -24.7% in March, the biggest drop since the statistical series beginning in 1992.
In July, had fallen by 17.4%, following a decrease of 16.2% in June.
The production of consumer goods fell 9.3% (-35.1% to -6.5% and lasting for perishable), the capital goods 13%, while that of intermediate goods fell 19.6%. For energy, the drop was from -6.9%
On average, in the first eight months of the year, production fell by 19.7% year on calendar corrected figures.

European Bank capital expanded by 78,000 mln dlr

Investment bank JP Morgan expects European banks to extend capital in the next six months by 78,000 million, to comply with the recommendations of the Basel II capital.
JP Morgan said that European banks seem to focus on obtaining a structural capital ratio of 8 percent.

Scheduled broadcasts include 38,000 million dollars to restore public support and 40.000 million in new funds to strengthen balance sheets.
The enlargements of Commerzbank, Allied Irish Bank, Bank of Ireland and Societe Generale will represent about 52 percent of the 78,000 million, JP Morgan said.

Dollar operates under pressure after G-7, hit by rising shares

The dollar weakened on Monday after a meeting of the G7 over the weekend reaffirmed the view that market officials are comfortable with a gradual fall of the dollar.
This trend was encouraged by the resilience of global equity markets.
The biggest beneficiary was the Australia dollar, which was also boosted by the growing speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia this week could raise interest rates, becoming the first major economy to adjust liquidity.
Global stocks were held on Monday despite a weak U.S. jobs report that was disclosed on Friday.
The weak jobs data suggest that U.S. monetary policy will remain very flexible, encouraging traders to buy currencies perceived as more risky assets like stocks as well.

"The risk was recovered strongly enough (...) and that leads to a general weakening of the dollar today. The market wants accumulate 'risk positions' again," said Geoff Kendrick, currency strategist at UBS in London."The G-7 may have been a red light (to sell dollars), but no change," he added.
Following a meeting of finance chiefs from Group of Seven held in Istanbul, traders were betting on a further weakening of the dollar, which serves to resolve imbalances between consumers and indebted countries like the U.S., and producing nations and saving like China.
At 1044 GMT, the dollar index, a measure of performance of the currency against six major currencies, fell 0.25 percent to 76.85.

The euro rose 0.4 percent to $ 1.4620, supported in part by a gain of 0.4 percent in European equities, while stock futures in the United States totaled 0.5 percent.The euro recovered after falling below $ 1.45 on Friday when it was announced that nonfarm payrolls fell by U.S. 263,000 in September, prompting a wave of dollar buying as a safe haven.
The market was also the expectation of monetary policy announcements made on Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England.

viernes, 2 de octubre de 2009

Brazil Industrial Production up 1.2 percent in August vs July

Industrial production in Brazil rose in August by 1.2 percent from July, seasonally adjusted, the eighth consecutive month of monthly gain, said Friday the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The market was waiting for a production increase of 0.8 percent, according to the median forecast of 20 analysts polled by Reuters. Forecasts ranged from 0.2 percent reduction and a 1.8 percent expansion.
Faced with the same month of 2008, Brazilian industrial production in August shrank 7.2 percent.
The fall was smaller than the 7.5 percent resulted from the median forecast of 27 analysts in comparison ineranual, which varied between 6.2 and 9.1 percent shrinkage.

Widespread declines in Hong Kong with HSBC to head

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange closed today with a fall of 2.77 percent in the benchmark Hang Seng and HSBC, the main weight of the parquet, and other leading financial downturns.

The benchmark index gave up 579.76 points to stand at 20,375.49, with all components, except FIH (which ended unchanged) shutting down.
The trading volume stood at 56.924 million Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to about 7,300 million dollars, or about 5,000 million.
The four sub-indices ended being down with the financier who closed the worst, with a drop of 956.40 points or 2.92 percent to stand at 31,777.49 points.

In this sector, shares of HSBC played down 3.73 percent, to $ 86.55 in Hong Kong, ICBC's lost by 2.57 percent, to 5.69 and those of HKEx fell 4, 56 percent, to 134.10.
The property subindex dismissed 778.41 points, or 2.87 percent to stand at 26,361.76 points.
In this sector, the choices of Henderson Land lost 4.71 percent, to $ 48.60 in Hong Kong, those of SHK Properties fell 3.42 percent, to 110.30 and Cheung Kong subtracted 3.15 percent, to 95.25.

The commercial and industrial sub-index fell 292.36 points, or 2.69 percent, after which stayed 10,566.54 points and the service fell 1.49 percent, or 571.46 integers, to 37,861.42.
In these sectors, the values of China Mobile lost 2.12 percent, to $ 74 Hong Kong, PetroChina fell 2.74 percent, to 8.52 and those of Li & Fung fell 4, 64 percent, to 29.80.

Among the components of services, China Res Power fell 3.22 percent, to 17.44.Outside the Hang Seng Index "H", which groups major Chinese state-owned, registered a drop of 331.83 points, or 2.80 percent, to 11,526.32 integers.

BASIC METALS-Copper falls erode U.S. confidence data

Copper prices fell on Friday as investors sold industrial metals, after a series of U.S. economic data eroded confidence and worries about the future increase in demand.
The benchmark copper in London Metal Exchange (LME by its initials in English) operated at $ 5903 a tonne at 1153 GMT from $ 5985 on Thursday.
The September manufacturing data in the U.S., the world's largest economy, were lower than expected, sparking a sell-off on Thursday.
U.S. auto sales fell 23 percent in September, because the dealers were left empty after sales boom driven by the summer program of the Government. The companies most affected were General Motors and Chrysler.
"The market is watching the U.S. manufacturing (.) Sales of cars was very poor," said Dan Smith, analyst at Standard Chartered. "Falling auto sales will have a domino effect (.) The implications go beyond the automotive sector," he added.

Traders said the publication of the September non-farm payrolls on Friday could spark new sales, bringing the copper could fall back towards $ 5818 a ton, a key support level and the lowest since Aug. 18 .Aluminum for delivery in three months was trading at $ 1823 from $ 1858 a tonne on Thursday.
Lead, used material for the manufacture of batteries, it ran $ 2117 to $ 2195 a tonne from late Thursday.
Nickel ran to $ 17,200 from $ 17,425 a tonne on Thursday, the zinc from $ 1877 to $ 1913 and tin from $ 14,275 to $ 14,200.

EU was EUR 9,500 million deficit in goods trade with Brazil in 2008

The European Union (EU) registered a deficit of about 9,000 million euro in their exchange of goods with Brazil in 2008, a period in which he obtained a surplus of nearly 3,000 million euros in trade in services, according to Eurostat data, the EU statistics office.
In addition, Brazil was the tenth largest trading partner of twenty-seven in the first half of 2009, representing 1.8% of exports and imports 2.1% of total EU trade.
During the summit between the EU and Brazil to be held in Stockholm on October 6, Eurostat published data for investment and trade between both sides.
Between 2000 and 2008, the value of exports of EU goods to Brazil increased by 56%, while imports almost doubled, so that the EU trade deficit with Brazil grew at that time and spent 1,800 million to 9,500 million in 2008.

Moreover, in the first six months of 2009, the EU trade deficit with Brazil was reduced to 3,300 million euros versus 5,500 million in the same period the previous year.
As pointed out by Eurostat, the decline in value of EU trade with Brazil from the first half of 2008 and 2009 "is in line with the general downward trend of the total EU external trade during the same period observed .

Brazil's share in total foreign trade of goods from the EU went from around 2% between 2000 and 2008.During the first six months of this year, Germany was the main European exporter to Brazil (3,100 million euros and 33% of EU exports), followed by France and Italy (1.200 million and 13% each).
The main importer was the Netherlands (2,700 million and 21% of total EU imports), ahead of Germany (2,500 million euros and 20%), the United Kingdom and Italy (1.300 million and 10% each ), France (1.200 million and 10%) and Spain (1,100 million and 9%).

Germany also registered the largest trade surplus with Brazil (600 million) during the first part of this year, followed by Austria (200 million).
The main deficits were registered in the Netherlands (2,100 million), the United Kingdom (600 million), Spain (500 million) and Belgium (400 million).
Moreover, in 2008 the EU exported services to Brazil for 9,000 million euros, while imports were 6,100 million, representing a surplus of 2,900 million euros of the Twenty in their exchange of services with the Latin American country, versus 600 million recorded in 2006 and 1,600 million in 2007.

Brazil accounted for about 1.5% of total services trade between the EU and third countries.
Finally, foreign direct investment from the EU to Brazil, amounting to 15,300 million euros in 2007, escalated to the divestiture of 3,400 million euros in 2008, while Brazilian direct investment in the EU grew from 1,600 million in 2007 to 6,900 million in 2008.

jueves, 1 de octubre de 2009

Stimuli withdraw euro countries in 2011 if recovery is confirmed

The euro countries agree to maintain the extraordinary measures of economic momentum until 2011, when, if confirmed recovery, began to withdraw from a coordinated manner.
This decision was adopted today by the finance ministers of the area (Eurogroup) and supported by the European Commission and European Central Bank (ECB) during a meeting in Gothenburg (Sweden).
Most European economies, including Spain, are experiencing dramatic increases in government deficits and debt as a result of the substantial aid the financial sector and increased spending to boost activity and to address the increase of unemployment.

Despite the obvious deterioration of public finances, which will often overshoot the deficit and debt limits set by the Stability Pact, the authorities are aware that an untimely withdrawal of incentives may jeopardize the recovery .Therefore, given the fragility that still shows the European economy, the Eurogroup arrived to the conclusion that "it is time to remove the stimuli," explained the end of the meeting the chairman of this informal forum, Prime Minister Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker.

"The economic situation is evolving positively though, remains fragile," said Juncker.
According to the president of Luxembourg, before starting to curb the deficit must wait to confirm that the European economy will stabilize in 2011.
Since the European Commission, the holder of Economic and Monetary Affairs Joaquin Almunia said that "we must discuss now (how to end the stimuli in a coordinated way), but the time to apply when the recovery will be more clear."

This will happen, according to the commissioner, when growth see again driven by domestic and external demand, without the support of exceptional measures such as those now in force in most countries.Somewhat stricter, the ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet reiterated the importance of rigorously applying the principles of the Stability Pact, saying that the path of fiscal consolidation should resume "at the latest by 2011".
Regarding monetary policy, Trichet outlined that the ECB's priority remains to ensure price stability, which for now is not at risk.
Also the second vice-president of the Spanish Government, Elena Salgado, said that "2011 may be a good year" for the abolition of special initiatives for revival, always confirming the start of recovery, which drove in the second half of next year .

Salgado made clear that the tax increase just approved by the Government does not contradict this strategy and recalled that more European countries have decided to raise taxes.
Moreover, both Juncker and Almunia had an impact on the measures to clean up the public purse, when finally adopted, they must be accompanied by a decided impetus to structural reforms to raise the capacity for growth-heavily depleted after the recession - and increase the resilience of the economy to future crises.
They said, in this regard that the growth potential of the euro area has fallen to the crisis environment of 1 percent and warned that if no action is taken, shall not exceed 1.5 percent the next few years, a rate insufficient to meet the challenges associated with aging and reduce unemployment.

Tax havens: French banks will close branches and subsidiaries in 2010

The French banks closed in March 2010 its subsidiaries and branches in countries regarded as tax havens and included in the "gray" the OECD said the skipper of one of these establishments, François Pearl, following a meeting with President the Republic Nicolas Sarkozy.
"The French banks took the decision to start closing their branches and subsidiaries in tax havens which remain on the list called 'gray' OECD in March 2010," said the group pattern Banque Populaire, Caisse d'Epargne (BPCE), François Perot.
"From that date, we have begun the end of our operations through subsidiaries and branches in these tax havens," said Pearl.
"It's a decision that was adopted by all French banks and shows that, from that standpoint, things change and change fast," he said.
On Monday the French bank BNB Paribas announced that by 2010 close its subsidiaries and branches in Panama and the Bahamas, two tax havens listed in the "gray list" of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) .
Last week, the summit of industrialized and emerging countries of the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh (USA) reiterated his desire to put an end to tax havens.

OIL-barrel dlr falls at least 70 after surging nearly 4 DLRS

Oil fell below $ 70 on Thursday, down from its biggest intraday jump since April, because the bulging inventories of distillates tarnished the positive perception and revived the notion that oil prices may have outpaced the demand.
U.S. crude futures fell 63 cents to $ 69.98 a barrel by 1134 GMT, after rising nearly $ 4 on Wednesday.
London Brent crude lost 52 cents to $ 68.55 a barrel.
A surprise drop in gasoline inventories in the United States fired up for Wednesday, which allowed the oil obtained with difficulty a slight profit for the third quarter, strengthening the commodity indexes at large.
The data from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. government reported a drop of 1.6 million barrels in gasoline inventories in the week ended Sept. 25. The distillates rose 300,000 barrels, but remain at a maximum of 26 years of 171.1 million, before the winter demand.
Crude inventories rose 2.8 million barrels in the same period, more than expected.
"Actually, (the drop in gasoline inventories) demonstrates how the market is based on hope, not on sound analysis of the facts," said analyst David Wech JBC Energy in a research note .