Germany will shrink by 4.2% in 2009 and grow by 2.7% in 2010

The German economy will contract by 4.2 percent in 2009 despite being back in second half and will grow 2.7 percent in the whole of 2010.These are the new forecasts of German insurer Allianz, which provides a "strong recovery of the situation in Germany in the fourth quarter and a good start in 2010.
Allianz predicts that gross domestic product (GDP) German grow 4 percent in the first quarter of next year, compared to same period in 2009, but may not maintain this rate of improvement throughout the year, said the economist the insurer's chief, Michael Heise, at a press conference.
He added that in 2010 will reduce the pulse circumstantial support programs worldwide and housing markets affected by the crisis are recovering slowly.
In countries with a high ratio of household debt, consumer demand will expand moderately and the overall demand for investment goods will be limited.For these reasons, Allianz provides that German exports will be the engine not cyclical as in previous recoveries.
Investment in Germany will recover after falling dramatically in the economic and financial crisis, while private consumption will worsen some of the burden of unemployment and the disappearance of the increased purchasing power for energy prices lower.
Allianz provides an increase in unemployment in 2009 and 2010 as a result of the recession, while ruling out a dramatic worsening labor market.
The number of unemployed in Germany is to end 2009 at 3.5 million and in 2010 between 3.8 and 3.9 million people.