Today it is more possible for employers to hire employees three months ago, even in the U.S., but the greatest advances are limited to booming emerging economies like Brazil, India and China, according to a quarterly survey by Manpower Inc. Measuring Manpower, considered an important indicator of labor demand, suggesting that the recovery in employment will continue in much of the world, but that employers remain cautious. In the U.S., large-scale creation of jobs is unlikely in the coming months.
The leading global staffing services said Tuesday that its seasonally adjusted net forecast for the United States was over-6 for the third quarter, slightly up from plus-5 in the previous measurement. A year ago the prognosis was negative.
The rate of Manpower, based on interviews with 18,000 U.S. employers, measures the difference between those who plan to add jobs and those who are hoping to cut. About 70 percent reported no change in its outlook, maintaining a recent trend shows that many employers still are not convinced about the sustainability of the current economic rebound. "We entered the third quarter and we see more of what came in the second (...) figures are improved by the Office of Work Statistics (BLS, for its acronym in English), but not enough to feel that we have left the problems, "said Manpower CEO Jeff Joerres.
The BLS reports monthly employment figures and on Friday said it added 431,000 jobs outside the agricultural sector in May.
This was much less than expected, and growth in private sector payrolls was also lower than expected. Among the upbeat economic signs include a purchasing managers index (PMI, for its acronym in English) indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector, said Joerres. But U.S. employers can meet aggregate demand with existing work force and will resist to add new employees until they see credible evidence that demand is sustainable.
"To get that evidence, we might have to wait until the first quarter (of 2011)," Joerres said, noting that employment in the seasonally weak fourth quarter. The executive described the pace of recovery of jobs in America as "still very warm." BRAZIL, INDIA AND CHINA, WITH BEST QUALIFICATIONS Measuring Manpower hiring intentions, based on 61,000 interviews, found better job prospects in 23 of 36 countries and territories compared with the second quarter and all but four improved over the same period a year ago. The strongest potential recruitment meet again in the emerging economies of Asia, including India and China, where companies enjoy strong demand from both local and foreign.
The hiring outlook in China is the strongest since Manpower began surveying employers five years ago, while that of India rebounded to a maximum of two years.
In Latin America, most employers in Brazil anticipate the amount of staff. Mexico can also expect a better environment for recruitment, especially in manufacturing and mining, but the prognosis worsened in Argentina. In Europe, the weakest hiring plans in the third quarter were reported in Italy, Ireland, Spain and Greece, while employers in the major economies such as France, Germany and Britain, are willing to add more workers in next 3 months.
Measurement of Manpower for the third quarter was made before a debt crisis in Greece lead to a European rescue plan nearly a trillion dollars. But Manpower internal data suggest that the crisis has had a limited effect on the confidence of European employers. U.S. Measurement Manpower began performing in 1962, but has a more recent history in other countries.
The Milwaukee-based company has a presence in 82 countries and generates most of its sales and profits outside the United States.
