The OECD and the ECB revised upward the growth forecast for the euro area

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also sees green shoots in the global economy. Although forecasts indicate that major world economies still have problems, the agency has revised and improved in nine tenths its growth estimates for the eurozone in 2009.

This is the new picture that describes the midterm review of semiannual outlook report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) presented today, which ensures that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the euro area back up a 3.9% in 2009 instead of 4.8% as announced in late June.

The reason is that the authors of this new venture evaluation that the countries of the European single currency emerging from recession in the third quarter (+0.3% in quarterly development) and that trend continued in the fourth (+2 %).

The correction is even more pronounced in relative terms in Japan, where GDP should fall by 6.8% according to the report by early summer, although there despite all the progress will remain very strongly negative (-5.6% ).

Those responsible for this mid-term data have not changed for America, whose GDP is expected to fall 2.8% this year, with an inflection and a positive growth in the last two quarters (+1.6% and +2.4 %).

The OECD, which has limited this time to give forecasts for 2009 (not next year, as usual semi-annual reports) and only for a broken down for the G7 countries, has emphasized that their models " point to an earlier recovery of what was thought a few months ago.

"The economic news has been especially favorable in recent months," notes the OECD before alluding to the cheaper cost of money, the recovery in stock markets or the moderation of stress in bank lending standards.

In addition, housing offers "some signs of stabilization" in the UK and U.S., the industrial inventory adjustment was carried to a point where they no longer going to amputate growth and emerging economies have started their recovery in advance , particularly China, with a tug of GDP by around 14% in the second quarter.

The well-known as the "Club of developed countries," warns, in any case, that the recovery will be "modest" for a while due to various elements of fragility, as low levels of profitability, the high unemployment continues to increase The progression "anemic" of labor compensation and the continuation of the correction of the housing market.

The unemployment situation has deteriorated sharply in some OECD countries but not in many others.

Specifically, the increases in the unemployment rate between early 2008 and the second quarter of 2009 have become almost 9 percentage points in Spain, about 7 points in Iceland, 5.5 points in Ireland, something more four points in the U.S. and Turkey, while food prices have been lower than 2.5 points in the other 26 states in the same period.

The organization believes it will remain necessary in the short-term stimulus measures implemented by governments to counter the crisis and should be implemented quickly.

In the longer term, however, the study authors advise countries to prepare the removal of all such measures of fiscal and monetary support and develop and "exit strategies and plans for fiscal consolidation.